The automotive revolution is speeding up (1)

Friday, 1 December 2017

A perspective on the emerging personal mobility landscape

Understanding how mobility could develop through 2030

While the global industry is expected to continue to grow, likely market scenarios for 2030 could differ almost up to 40 percent in revenue potential due to a high variance in prospective growth of disruptive technologies and new business models, whereas many traditional revenue sources could remain relatively stable.

Projecting the various development paths of the four disruptive trends—and their impact on the industry—led us to define six potential mobility scenarios for 2030;

  • Stalled development
  • Gradual evolution of traditional mobility
  • Disruption of personal mobility
  • City-driven acceleration
  • Strong sustainable mobilty, weak digital
  • Weak sustainable mobility, medium digital

Four scenarios were built using the same degree of technology diffusion for all four trends (Autonomous driving, Shared mobility, Connectivity and Electrification), since we found that all trends are mutually reinforcing and the success or failure of one affects the others.

Given that the key drivers of diffusion for electrification (consumer pull, technological readiness, and regulation push) can be independent from those of the other three trends, we added two additional scenarios in which we vary the diffusion trajectory of the trends.

McKinsey - The automotive revolution is speeding up