The automotive revolution is speeding up (3)

Wednesday, 6 December 2017

A perspective on the emerging personal mobility landscape

Spotlighting new business models

The share of revenue from disruptive business models could increase from about 1 percent in 2016 to up to 25 percent by 2030.

The new base case could mean that business in the personal-mobility landscape may look very different in the future. Value is likely to shift toward new, disruptive business models, with shared mobility and connectivity solutions potentially accounting for up to 25 percent of total automotive revenue in 2030 (Exhibit 3).

McKinsey - The automotive revolution is speeding up

Of course, there’s no guarantee this scenario will emerge. Reaching four milestone statistics is crucial to it becoming reality:

  • 100 percent vehicle connectivity and the commercial introduction of robo-taxis covering up to 5 percent of passenger miles traveled by 2030.
  • 90 percent adoption rate of smartphone ridesharing apps by 2030.
  • Tenfold growth in reliance on shared mobility, accounting for about 15 to 20 percent of vehicle miles traveled in dense cities by 2030.
  • 50 percent of vehicles sold have cost-efficient electrified powertrains in 2030.

If this scenario comes to pass, new business models on shared mobility and car-data-enabled services will require players to build on different technology and competencies as well as new types of partnerships to unlock value and serve increasingly diverse customer needs.